Posted on by Judy

Assume that for cardiac bypass surgery, 85% of patients survive the surgery, 95% survive the recovery period after surgery, 80% are able to make the lifestyle changes needed to extend their survival to one year or more, and only 10% of those who do not make the lifestyle changes survive more than a year. What is the likelihood that a given patient will survive more than a year?

Let ,
The number of patients who undergo bypass surgery = 100.N
Therefore, number of patients survive immediately after surgery ( @ 85% ) = 85.N
Number of patients surviving the recovery period after surgery
= 95% of number of patients surviving the surgery
= 0.95 x 85.N
= 80.75,N
Number of patients surviving the recovery period after surgery = 80.75.N
Number of people able to make lifestyle changes = 80% of 80.75.N = 64.6.N
Number of people not able to make lifestyle changes = 20% of 80.75.N = 16.15.N
Therefore, number of patients who will be able to survive more than a year
= Number of people able to make lifestyle changes + 10% of people not able to make lifestyle changes
= 64.6.N + 10% of 16.15.N
= 64.6.N + 1.615.N
= 66.215.N
Thus likelihood that a given patient will survive more than a year
= Number of patients able to survive more than a year/ Number of patients undergoing surgery
= 66.215.N / 100.N
= 0.66215
LIKLIHOOD THAT A GIVN PATIENT WILL SURVIVE MORE THAN A YEAR = 0.66215
 
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