Author: Splendid Writings

Unit I Research Paper

Conduct research to answer the following questions:

1. What is appreciative inquiry (AI)?
2. What are the implications of AI on defining project scope?

Create a two- to three-page Word document in APA format to answer these questions. Include a title page and a reference page (not included in the total number count of pages).

Unit II Research Paper

Conduct research and find at least two articles on prioritizing projects. Compare and contrast the two articles you found and create a three- to four-page Word document (synopsis) in APA format on what you found different about each article.

Other items that need to be addressed in your paper include the urgency of each project, the cost of delaying the expected benefits from various projects, and practical details concerning the timing.

Include a title page and a reference page (not included in the total number count of pages).

Unit IV Research Paper
Write a three-page research paper covering the following topics:

1. Define project cost terms and tell how each is used in estimating project cost.
2. Compare and contrast analogous, parametric, and bottom-up methods of estimating costs.
3. Describe issues in project cost estimating and how to deal with each.
4. Describe the earned value management terms.

Find at least two sources. Be sure to use APA format and cite resources used. Include a title page and a reference page (not included in the number count of pages).

Unit V Homework

Example Project

Follow the instructions on page 286 of your textbook, and complete the example project which is at the bottom of the page. Create your own example for a project. Follow the instructions, and submit a no less than four-page Word document answering the questions for the project.

Be sure to use APA format and cite your work. When you get to the facilitating a discussion with the sponsor, use your imagination to create a discussion with a fictitious sponsor.

Unit VI Research Paper

Conduct research and find at least two articles on handling project conflict management. In your paper, identify the different styles you found in your research, and compare and contrast each style. Identify either low, medium, or high for concern for self and concern for others in your paper. Also, include a synopsis of each article to include when appropriate for projects. See exhibit 13.11, located on page 371 of your textbook, for an example.

Be sure to use APA format and cite your work. Your paper should be at least three pages in length and will include a title and reference page which are not included in the page count.

Unit VIII Research Paper

You are going to create a sample project describing the organizational structure of the agency or company for which you are planning the project. Describe as many of the organizational culture attributes as you can. List by name as many of the project executive, management, and team roles as you can identify. Be sure to assign roles to yourself as well.

Discuss in this paper how you anticipate that the organizational structure, culture, and role assignments will help or hurt your ability to successfully plan this project. Describe the project life cycle model that is used in the organization, and explain why it is appropriate.

Write a four-page summary of the project including all the elements listed in the instructions. At least two references must be used.

Be sure to use APA format and cite your work. Your summary should be at least four pages in length and will include a title and reference page which are not included in the page count.

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NUR-340: NURSING INFORMATICS
Module 8—Clinical Information Systems – Week 9
OVERVIEW
In this module, selected clinical information systems will be discussed and the use of different systems in
various settings.
TOPICS
Below are the topics covered within this module.
● Clinical Provider Order Entry (CPOE)
● Electronic Medication Administration Record (EMAR)
● Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS)
● Evidence Based Practice (EBP)
● Public health
● Quality Assessment & Performance Improvement (QAPI)
● Medicare (CMS) and Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS)
OBJECTIVES
After successfully completing this module, the student will be able to:
● describe the types of applications/tools that nurse clinicians can use to manage and deliver
patient care in various settings; (MO8.1)
● discuss the benefits of CPOE; (MO8.2)
● identify the benefits of using the EHR, DSS, and EMAR applications in Nursing Practice; (MO8.3)
● analyze patient care technologies appropriate to meet the needs of a diverse patient population;
and (MO8.4)
● identify current government initiatives for implementing EHRs. (MO8.5)
Copyright © 2018 by Thomas Edison State University. All rights reserved.
STUDY MATERIALS
Readings
● American Psychological Association. (2010). Publication manual of the American Psychological
Association (6th ed.). Washington, DC: Author—Chapter 7, Reference Examples
● Saba and McCormick (2015), Chapters 27, 28, 32, 34, 37, 39, 40, and 41
Online Resources
● OASIS:
○ Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
○ Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS)
ACTIVITIES
Module 8 has two activities. Please consult the Course Calendar for the due dates.
Discussion Forum 12
In Discussion Forum 12, post your response to the following. Please identify the forum in which you are
participating in the subject line of your thread (e.g., “Discussion Forum 12/[Your Name]”), post your
response to the selected discussion topic by the date indicated in the Course Calendar, and comment on
at least two classmates’ responses.
Computerized Medical Records
Respond to one of the topics below for your posting. Support your response with a rationale.
● Discuss Computerized Physician Order Entry (CPOE) and the use of the electronic
health system (EMR) for delivering healthcare in one healthcare setting.
○ Discuss the advantages and disadvantages to using CPOE, Barcoding, and
the EMR.
○ Search the Internet and post web links to resources found on one of these
technologies.
● Go to the following practice Electronic Medical Records (EMR) site and set up a free
account:
○ Explore the features of the EMR and comment on your experience in using
Copyright © 2018 by Thomas Edison State University. All rights reserved.
the system for the first time.
○ Did you find the site easy to use? Why or why not?
○ What features did you find useful?
○ What features would you like to see in the EMR? Explain your answers.
For posting and grading guidelines and additional help with discussion board assignments, please refer to
the Discussion Forum Rubric located in the Evaluation Rubrics folder of the course website and to the
Online Student Handbook located within the General Information area of the course website.
Written Assignment: Nursing Informatics Paper – Due Week 9
Students Please Note: This assignment must be submitted to turnitin.com.
The Turnitin originality report MUST be submitted in PDF format. At the link below is a screenshot
with instructions: Screenshot with PDF Instructions
Assignments submitted with turnitin reports in any other format will not be graded.
Reference the “Turnitin Requirement” section of the course Syllabus (or Using Turnitin for
Assignments on the Topic List Page) for general instructions. Upload both your assignment and the
originality report within the assignment link.
Overview
You have now completed the annotated bibliography for your chosen topic. For this assignment, you will
write a critique, including strengths and weaknesses of your chosen topic, using information from the
Internet, literature databases, and your annotated bibliography research. Review the rubric for this
assignment in the Evaluation Rubrics folder. A sample template paper that includes the level heading
layouts (APA style) can be accessed using the following link: NI Paper Template (also accessible in the
Course Documents folder).
Purpose
The purpose of this assignment is for the student to:
● demonstrate knowledge of a current topic in Nursing Informatics; and
● demonstrate competency in the use of the APA Style Guide writing format.
Directions
● You are to use your annotated bibliography and other related research done thus far
to develop a 7- to 8-page MS Word paper, in APA format, on your Nursing Informatics
topic.
Copyright © 2018 by Thomas Edison State University. All rights reserved.
○ Note that the paper developed here will be used to prepare a PowerPoint
Presentation in Module 10.
● Follow the guidelines below. Refer to the “NI Paper Sample Outline” that can be found
in the “Course Documents” folder at the top section of your course website.
○ The paper must be in APA format. Please refer to your APA Manual and the
Writing Style Guides link under Student Resources from within General
Information tab.
○ The paper should include two levels of headings (Level 1 and Level 2).
○ The title page should have a “running head.”
○ The body of the paper should be 7 to 8 pages in length. The title page,
abstract page and reference page(s) are NOT INCLUDED in the 7 to 8 pages.
○ Every page should have a page heading, including a page number.
● Save your presentation on your personal computer with an identifying filename (NI
Topic A3 with your initials).
● Submit your paper to SmartThinking [ located under the Student Resources tab. Click
Educational Resources, then Online Tutoring Services or go to: SmartThinking ]
IMPORTANT NOTE: SmartThinking requires a minimum of 24 hours (may be
extended due to their workload) to review the paper and provide feedback. Please
submit your paper early enough to accommodate this time frame for review. The intent
of SmartThinking is to provide you academic writing feedback related to grammar and
writing style and you are to review their guidance and consider revisions to your paper
accordingly. Please be aware that SmartThinking may not always provide correct
guidance regarding APA style and you must use the APA Publication Manual as your
resource.
● This resource will check your grammar and writing style. Revise as necessary.
● Include the SmartThinking comments in your paper as part of your submitted
assignment.
● As the final step before submitting the assignment, spellcheck the paper.
● Submit your file using the directions in Submit Assignments.
Note: These directions and the grading rubric for this assignment (see the Evaluation Rubrics folder) will
be used to evaluate and grade your assignment. Please refer to the details of each when preparing your
assignment.
Use the Add Submission button to submit your assignment.
Copyright © 2018 by Thomas Edison State University. All rights reserved.

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Benefits of Kayaking and canoeing

Canoeing and kayaking are physical activities which involve paddling a craft through water. Notably, both are low impact; however, kayaking can be performed in rocky rivers. While they are mostly done as hobbies or for sport, they can improve strength, flexibility and aerobic fitness. One can paddle on lakes, seas or rivers. The terms are often used interchangeably, but they exhibit some differences, in a canoe one either sits or kneels inside the open vessel (Loeffler, 2018).By use of a single-bladed paddle, a person can push the craft comfortably in the water. On the other hand, a kayak is enclosed, and one sits inside with legs extended, a double bladed paddle is used. This paper seeks to determine the benefits of canoeing.

Canoeing involves paddling. It is a physical activity and is encouraged by many organizations throughout the world such as the British Canoeing Society. This is because of its many benefits to people of all ages as it is essential in keeping fitness. It is also observed as an excellent way to interact and bond with family and friends, and this improves ones mental health (Loeffler, 2018).

Benefits of canoeing

                                                                     Physical health

The strength of the upper body can be improved by this activity as muscles of the arms and shoulders are involved. Researchers from Kingston University observed that experienced canoeists have more developed chests and forearms than their inexperienced partners. The torso and strength of the legs are improved as one rotates the craft using these areas of the body. There is also a reduced risk of tear on joints as paddling is not an aggressive activity.

Canoeing is highly regarded as it helps in burning calories; however, the ability to achieve this depends on the weight and pace of kayaking or canoeing. A study done at Manchester Metropolitan University noted that people who perform this activity demonstrated excellent heart strength. The size of a heart determines the efficiency of pumping blood around the body. Persons who paddle often have a larger left ventricle than sedentary people hence improved health (Loeffler, 2018).

                                                                 Mental health

A disturbing report released by the Australian Research Alliance for Children and Youth (ARACY) shows a rise in suicide rates in young adults specifically those between eighteen and twenty-four. Australia is known for good smoking rates; however, its bulling in youth and children is alarming. This has called for more investment to mitigate this vice. A reason for this bullying has been noted in the people referred to as “fat.” They have low self-worth and can have suicidal thoughts. Therefore, canoeing improves lean body composition. Notably, Australian researchers who published in the Journal of Science noted that low levels of body fat and body composition favors lean muscle mass in paddlers (Thomsen, Powell & Monz, 2018).

As a result, the affected people can have improved mental strength by boosting their confidence when they develop a lean body that can be achieved by canoeing. In the same way, it is observed as a way to commune with nature and release the stresses of life as it is termed peaceful and meditative. If someone is free of any infirmity especially that associated with non-communicable diseases they are deemed peaceful. Therefore, paddling improves the immunity of people and hence promotes their mental health.

     Conclusion

Kayaking and canoeing are activities done for sport and hobbies. However, along they can improve strength, flexibility and aerobic fitness. Again, the rising rate of mental health issues can be significantly enhanced by communing with nature and enhancing physique by gaining a lean body. Therefore, it is recommended for people of all ages to engage such activities in reducing the risk of non-communicable diseases. Notably, before engaging in this activity, it is imperative for a person to join a local club so that they can gain experience in swimming. The weather should be put into consideration before kayaking or canoeing. Personal gear and protective equipment should be carried along as well as first aid kit.

                                                                      References

White, M. P., Bell, S., Elliott, L. R., Jenkin, R., Wheeler, B. W., & Depledge, M. H. (2016). The health benefits of blue exercise in the UK. In Green Exercise (Vol. 69, No. 78, pp. 69-78). ROUTLEDGE in association with GSE Research.

Thomsen, J. M., Powell, R. B., & Monz, C. (2018). A Systematic Review of the Physical and Mental Health Benefits of Wildland Recreation. Journal of Park & Recreation Administration, 36(1).

Loeffler, T. A. (2018). Looking back, paddling forward: perspectives on outdoor expedition participation over the lifespan. Journal of Adventure Education and Outdoor Learning, 1-13.

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With the increase in the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents over the past several decades in the United States and across the globe, researchers, medical providers, and governments worldwide are seeking novel methods to address this epidemic. The use of body mass index (BMI) report cards, where schools weigh and measure students and send parents an assessment of their child’s risk for obesity, is one method that has been popular across the United States and internationally. Experts agree that parents should be informed of their child’s weight status, yet there is considerable debate about how this information should be presented to parents and from whom it should come. Although several states have implemented BMI report card programs, few peer-reviewed studies evaluating their effectiveness have been published to date. Eating disorders, while less common than obesity, are prevalent among adolescents. Eating disorders are a source of substantial morbidity and mortality and are costly to treat. Early diagnosis and timely treatment could decrease the economic and health burden of eating disorders on the population. Although population-based screening for eating disorders has been validated as a feasible method to identify at-risk adolescents who might benefit from early identification and treatment, eating disorder screening has historically not been conducted as part of routine school-based health screenings in the United States. In March of 2013, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell signed a bill that requires information about eating disorders to be sent to parents of Virginia public school students in grades 5-12. The law also calls for the Virginia Department of Health to work with the National Eating Disorders Association and other stakeholders to develop a plan for implementing eating disorder screenings in schools.
Suppose you are a health economist at the Virginia Department of Health, and is responsible for the cost-effectiveness analysis for this project.
Assume that the screenings will take place once a year. Evaluate the suggested intervention discussing the following key issues associated with the intervention:
a) The perspective of the study: Consider cost of obesity/eating disorder to the individual with illness or to the society as a whole
b) The intervention time frame: The period should be sufficiently long to cover program start-up phase and full program implementation (with ongoing costs and school schedule).
c) The analysis time frame: You need to decide how long we should wait to see change in outcome of interest if the intervention is successful. For prevention strategies, the time frame should capture all potential costs and benefits of the program. However, you must consider how realistic and feasible data collection will be (i.e., very few outcomes might be detectable within a short period after screening, but very long-term follow up is not feasible).
d) Data on all types of costs to be collected: including costs relating to actual implementation of the treatments.
e) Data on relevant health outcomes within each of the following time frames: short term (e.g., one month), intermediate (e.g., one year), and long term (e.g., 10 years or lifetime). Rank the outcomes identified in (e) on the level of appropriateness for CEA. How feasible is it to obtain data on outcomes you have identified? If too difficult, what
are the alternative outcomes that will still reflect the outcome of interest? What assumptions are you making regarding the alternatives as proxies for outcome of interest?
Outline the recommendations you would make? Support your analysis, evaluation, and recommendations through reference to the existing cost effectiveness literature.
Total word limit: 2000

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SIT223 – Information Technology Professional Skills Portfolio Assessment
This assignment is assessed against ULO2, GLO2, GLO6, GLO7 and GLO8.
1 Introduction
All the learning activities in this unit are designed to provide you with the opportunity of achieving the second learning outcome: Develop a portfolio that demonstrates evidence of emerging professional skills for practice in the discipline of IT. The activities you have embarked on during this unit, encompass the following Graduate Learning Outcomes (GLO):
• discipline knowledge and capabilities (GLO1),
• communication (GLO2),
• critical thinking (GLO4)
• self‐management (GLO6),
• teamwork (GLO7), and
• global citizenship (GLO8).
When you are completing each activity throughout SIT223, you need to think about how your learning impacted upon each of these professional skills. Your participation in the learning activities will provide the evidence that you need to show you have emerging professional skills which are under continual development.
You will be given the opportunity in your seminar in Week 8 to gain feedback on your draft portfolio from your tutor. The final submission is due in Study Week (Week 12).
2 What do you have to provide?
This assignment has three parts:
• Reflection on your employability skills (5%)
• Reflection on your presentation in assignment 3 – Shark Tank presentation (10%)
• Reflection on you learning throughout the unit (45%)
2.1 Employability Skills reflection (5%)
If you recall, we practiced Employability toolkit during the seminar on week 2. Your activities in seminar and then as part of your assignment 1, required you to analyse, discuss, and reflect on your employability toolkit results. You are required to do the employability toolkit questionnaire again (during weeks 10 or 11) and compare the results you achieve with your
results from your first attempt in the beginning of the trimester. In your reflection on the comparison, try to also answer the following questions with regards to your employability results.
1. Has there been any changes in the results? What is your justification for the changes if any (changes could be both increased, or decreased literacy levels)? If there are no changes, why do you think it is so?
2. Do you feel that your profile/results is an accurate reflection of your career thinking? What do you find most/least accurate?
3. Which aspects of the profile reflect your strengths? When completing the tool, did you take into account the capacities you have developed through sport, music and/or work?
4. Which aspects of your profile stand out as limiting your employability?
5. With this knowledge, where do you need to focus?
6. Given that your peers and classmates have also completed the tool and based on the discussions during the seminars and trimester, do you think that you are too easy or hard on yourself?
7. Would it be useful to talk to a careers advisor, lecturer, program coordinator or mentor? If so, who could you talk to first?
Please try to keep your reflection concise. While there is no word limit (no lower or upper bounds), we would expect you to provide around half a page of reflection on this activity (12-point font, 1.0-line space).
2.2. Shark Tank reflection (10%)
For your assignment 3, you work as part of a group, preparing a Shark Tank presentation to pitch your idea and the business model. For most this should have been your first attempt at trying to pitch to investors and make them interested in their idea. Given the changes in Information Technology, you will most probably be running your own start up company, or work for one.
In this section of your portfolio, we would like to reflect on your activity during assignment 3, and seminars for weeks 8 and 9. More specifically we want you to provide the following:
1. Briefly describe what the idea was and how did you plan for the start up to be formed (what was the business model)?
2. How did you come up with this idea? What were the clues?
3. What did you learn from this activity?
4. Do you think that you would be continuing this path (to pitch ideas, and running your own start up in future)? and if so, what would you need to change/learn/do?
Some of your experience from Shark Tank activity would relate to your broader GLOs, like team work, communication, and global citizenship. You may use them for your reflection on your GLOs as well (see 2.3 below).
2.3 Learning Portfolio Reflection (45%)
At a minimum, for each of the professional skills (GLOs) listed in section 1 introduction, you must provide evidence that demonstrates that they are developing or being refined to professional standards and are reflected upon in a cohesive portfolio. You need to be aware that your learning is not neatly packaged into activities that are directed solely at one learning outcome. The assessment maps to specific learning outcomes but there are others that are not explicitly assessed. For example, self‐management is not assessed as part of assignments 1, 2 or 3, but the learning you achieved through the activities supporting these assignments includes a significant amount of self‐management. Self‐management is not just about being an independent learner but includes skills that you develop through activities such as teamwork, including communication, collaboration and emotional awareness.
In preparing and compiling your portfolio, you will need to be explicit in identifying which skills you are referring to throughout and, given portfolios are a communication medium, you will also be demonstrating your communication skills.
You should be constantly updating your portfolio with your experiences in the seminar activities and the other assignments from this unit as they are all key sources of evidence.
You need to provide a reflection on the following GLOs:
• discipline knowledge and capabilities (GLO1),
• communication (GLO2),
• critical thinking (GLO4)
• self‐management (GLO6),
• teamwork (GLO7), and
• global citizenship (GLO8).
In the following section, we provide you with more details of what a reflection is and a sample template to get you started. However, please keep in mind that you are not required to exactly follow the template, but keep notice of the content provided in them so that you can provide a complete reflection. Any other format or template you use should include the required content as the template describes.
2.3.1 What is a reflection?
Reflective learning is about helping you make connections between what happens in the classroom and what you need to do in practice. It is an opportunity for you to think more deeply about your learning, about the connections between what you are thinking, what you are being taught, and what you are doing. Put simply, a reflection will help you look at an event, understand it and learn from it. The written reflection serves as evidence of the learning you have achieved.
In order to achieve reflective learning, the type of learning needs to be active rather than passive (passive learning occurs in a lecture theatre for example whereas active learning is where the learner, i.e. you, is fully engaged with and in control of the learning activity). Reflective learning allows you not only to learn from the activity itself but also to learn from your participation in the activity.
One approach is the what, so what, now what. As far as this Portfolio is concerned, your commentary on your reflective practice should include your observations about:
1. Experience – what learning impacted upon this particular skill? You need to be specific and cannot, for example, simply reference “in‐class” but rather “in the Media Watch presentation class…”. Make sure you present your experience, not the team, or others in the class or seminar. You need to be egotistical in this context.
2. Reflection – so what, discuss what you have learnt; examine what you have learnt about yourself, relationships, attitudes, understanding, practice etc.; how your experience differed from the theory; what was significant to your learning.
3. Outcome – now what, a new perspective, a change in behaviour; how will you apply the learning in the future; what you need to do to improve future outcomes.
An excellent example of how to implement the what, so what, now what model has been developed by Academic Liaison, Employability and Skills (ALES) at Cumbria University and can be found at
www.cumbria.ac.uk/Public/LISS/Documents/skillsatcumbria/ReflectiveModelRolfe.pdf.
2.3.2 Sample template
Learning Outcome
Specify which ULO or GLO, this entry is referring to
What?
Suggested approaches to your response.
… was the problem, the situation, was I trying to achieve, actions did I take, the response of others, consequences for me or others?
So what?
Suggested approaches to your response.
…does this tell me, imply, mean about me, others? …other knowledge can I bring to the situation, what should I have done to make it better, is my new understanding of the situation?
Now what?
Suggested approaches to your response.
…do I need to do to improve, resolve the situation? … broader issues need to be considered if this action is to be successful? … might be the consequences of this action?
(the prompts in this template are adapted from Rolfe et al.’s (2001) reflective model)
Your submission must be concise and to the point. You may include more than one relevant example from this unit in relation to the What? component but each must relate to different aspects of your reflection. So for instance, if you include several examples in relation to GLO2 – Communication, you have to make it clear how each contributes to your learning in your reflections in the so what?/now what? components of your submission for GLO2.
2.3.3 Resources for further assistance
There are a number of resources available to assist you with this assessment including:
• Cottrell, S. (2015): Skills for Success: Personal Development and Employability.
Palgrave Study Skills. Chapter 8: The art of reflection. (see library website)
• Deakin Air (2014): Portfolio and reflection – Study support. Available via https://video.deakin.edu.au/channel/Portfolio+and+reflection+‐
+Study+support/49238832
• Williams, K, Woolliams, M, and Spiro, J (2012): Reflective writing. Palgrave Macmillan, Pocket Study Skills. (See library website)
• VCC Baking & Pastry Arts (2013): What is Reflective Learning? Available via https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIsznZR4hzY
• Pas examples of portfolios are available in CloudDeakin in Resources>>Portfolio Samples. Please note that these are portfolios submitted by students during the past trimesters. While they are mostly similar in content, your portfolio assignment and its rubric is different.
3 Submission
You will prepare either:
• A single document which will be submitted in CloudDeakin to the appropriate dropbox as a Word document (.docx, .doc or .rtf) or in Adobe PDF format.
• OR CloudDeakin Portfolio presentation, which will be submitted to the appropriate dropbox.
• OR any other format we can view which may include a website you develop for this, a PowerPoint presentation, a video, etc.
You do not need to stick with the tabular format of the template nor do you need to only include text. We encourage you to include images etc. as evidence. Although the portfolio assignment is about the learning you have achieved in this unit, you are bringing skills to the table from previous learning and life experiences. So, you need to emphasise how your skills have grown, improved, extended in the context of this unit and other outside unit experiences.
4 Final words
You can expect to prepare approximately one pages per graduate learning outcome. If you use one and a half pages for your employability toolkit comparison and your Shark Tank reflection, this would equate to approximately a total of 8 pages if you address all the requirements of this assignment.
Remember that this assignment is worth 60% of the marks for this unit so you can expect it to be a substantial piece of work. As you have already completed a number of weeks of learning activities you should start building your portfolio as soon as possible so you have a significant draft to share with your tutor during week 9 seminar.
It is worth noting that of the 150 hours you are expected to allocate to this unit during trimester, you should anticipate to spend at least 25% of the time on assignment preparation, more realistically half the time (so at least 30 – 40 hours). This assignment is worth 60% so you can anticipate you need to spend at least 18 hours preparing your portfolio submission. If you are aiming for a good mark (as opposed to a pass) you will need to put in more effort, and hence more time into the preparation of your portfolio.
Good luck.
Iman (on behalf of the unit team)

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Rhetorical context refers to the circumstances surrounding any writing situation and includes purpose, audience, and focus. Think of a particularly troublesome writing assignment you’ve faced. You might have had trouble even knowing how to begin.

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How does the Seated Gudea holding temple plan (c. 2100 B.C.E) depict the idea of genealogy, spirituality and belief system. How does this relate to the political and social events of the culture it was from? What characteristics of the artifact suggests the depiction of the key terms. Include examples when describing, as well as include the time period, material, and the reason the art was commissioned.

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Forecasting Methods
Read Problem 6 in Chapter 6 of your textbook. Calculate and answer parts a through d. Include all calculations and spreadsheets in your post. Explain why the moving average method was used instead of another forecasting method. What might be another forecasting method that could prove to be just as useful? Your initial post should be 200-250 words.

Guided Response: Respond to at least two of your classmates’ posts to identify some of their recommended forecasting methods. Give additional advice and alternative solutions that might be used as well.
——————————

1. Rebekah.
a. Calculate a 5-year moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012.
To find the solution for a. one needs to find the moving average which is found by using the average mergers from 2007-2011 (Vonderembse & White, 2013). It can be calculated in Excel by taking the number of mergers note in the attached document as B9:B13/5 for a result of 174.2.

b. Use the moving average technique to determine the forecast for 2005 to 2011. Calculate measurement error using MSE and MAD.
The response to this aspect is more complicated as one needs to find the forecast, which can be to use the 5 years before and average to find the forecast (Vonderembse & White, 2013). Then one would subtract the actual mergers from the forecast to get the error rate (Vonderembse & White, 2013). The absolute deviation is taking the error rate and removing the positive or negative notation, which is not applicable in the sample problem as all forecasts are positive. The squared error is found by taking the absolute error to the second power, or X^2 (Vonderembse & White, 2013). The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) are now easy to find as one calculates for the average of the found SE and AD. The MSE is shown as 5,378 and MAD as 61.45.

c. Calculate a 5-year weighted moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012. Use weights of 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.30, with the most recent year, weighted being the largest.
The moving weighted average takes the number of mergers then multiplied by the given weights to find the weighted average (Vonderembse & White, 2013).

2011 0.30*240=72
2010 0.25*252=56.25
2009 0.20*186=37.2
2008 0.15*97=14.55
2007 0.10*123=12.3
d. Use regression analysis to forecast the number of mergers in 2012

To find the regression, one can use Excel to create a scatter plot and then find the linear correlation (Vonderembse & White, 2013). When this is graphed in Excel, one can find the formula of the line, which is noted as y = 17.734x – 35460. Given what is shown in the graph, it would appear from the regression that the trend shows a strong positive correlation (Vonderembse & White, 2013). Based on the graph, one can estimate the mergers in 2012 would be 248.

Moving Average and Other Methods to Forecast
When considering why the moving average model is used, one can see that it shows what is expected to see based on past performance. Simple moving average smooths out the outliers, as it can be used to find the overall trend to predict what may occur in the future (Vonderembse & White, 2013). One may trust the average moving method as it is statistically based on what can be seen as fact. The variation would be when the actual is found, and the error rate is found to see how far off one was from the forecast. One method that may be better for forecasting can be the exponential smoothing as it is a variation of the weighted moving but uses more recent data to continue to evolve based on the results. (Vonderembse & White, 2013). As all the methods are trying to predict something that is dependent on many other factors, they all have value in business assessment. It may be best to try multiple methods to find which seem to produce the most accurate result given the business that the methods are used.

Reference

Vonderembse, M. A., & White, G. P. (2013). Operations management. Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu/

Year
Mergers
B. Forecast
Error Rate
Absolute Deviation
MSE
Weighted Moving Average
Formula
2000
46

B9:B13/5
2001
46

2002
62

2003
45

2004
64

2005
61
52.6
8.4
8.4
70.56

2006
83
55.6
27.4
27.4
750.76

2007
123
63
60
60
3600
12.3
0.10*B9
2008
97
75.2
21.8
21.8
475.24
14.55
0.15*B10
2009
186
85.6
100.4
100.4
10080.16
37.2
0.20*B11
2010
225
110
115
115
13225
56.25
0.25*B12
2011
240
142.8
97.2
97.2
9447.84
72
0.30*B13
A.
Moving Average 2012

B9:B13/5
174.2

174.2
B9:B13/5
B.
Noted in C7:C13

Error=B7-C7
AD=ABS(error)
MSE=#^2

MAD=Average (E7:E13)
61.45714286
MSE=Average (F7:F13)
5378.508571

C.
Weighted Moving Average For 2012

192.3
SUM B9:B113

————————-

2. Ramanjeet.

Note: Please refer attached excel for the data tables and detailed calculations.
A. Calculate a 5-year moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012.
To calculate the 5-year moving average, sum the data for the most recent 5 years and divide by 5

Estimated Mergers for 2012 = (123+97+186+225+240)/5

= 174.2

~ 174 Mergers in 2012
B. Use the moving average technique to determine the forecast for 2005 to 2011. Calculate measurement error using MSE and MAD.
Error in the forecast is the difference between the actual value and the forecasted value.

Mean Squared Error (MSE) is the average of all the squared errors
MSE for 2005 to 2011

= (70.56+750.76+3600+475.24+10080.16+13225+9447.84)/7

= 5378.51
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is the average of the error values after positive and negative signs are removed from the error values.
MAD for 2005 to 2011

= (8.4+27.4+60+21.8+100.4+115+97.2)/7

= 61.46
C. Calculate a 5-year weighted moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012. Use weights of 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.30, with the most recent year weighted being the largest.
Estimated mergers for 2012 using a 5-year weighted moving average is the sum of weighted values over the last 5 years, with the most recent period weighted more heavily, being the closest representative of the future (Vonderembse & White, 2013).

Estimated Mergers for 2012, using weighted moving average

= 0.3*240 + 0.25*225 + 0.2*186 + 0.15*97 + 0.1*123

= 192.3
D. Use regression analysis to forecast the number of mergers in 2012.
Regression analysis is a method to predict the value of one variable (the dependent variable) based upon the value of another variable (the independent variable)

The regression equation is described as below:

Y = a + b(X)
Y is the dependent variable
X is the independent variable
n is the number of data points in the sample
r is the coefficient of correlation that measures the strength of the
relationship between the variables (Vonderembse & White, 2013).

From the calculations, as described in the Attached excel, the linear regression equation is

Y = -8.75 + 17.73 (X)
Since for the simplicity of calculations, the years were coded as continuous series of numbers, 2012 will be represented by number 13.

Thus, Approx. Mergers in 2012(Y) = -8.75 + 17.73*13 = 222 (approx.)

Justification for Moving Average Method
One of the simplest methods of forecasting is to refer to the most recent value and make an approximate forecast based on it. However, this methodology could introduce significant bias in the forecast if any one of the past values was based on some temporary data trend or sharp fluctuation (Vonderembse & White, 2013). To minimize the impact of temporary data fluctuations, the moving average concept is used that forecasts the next period based on the average of the recent periods. The technique is called a moving average because with each forecasting iteration, the most period is added, and the oldest period value is subtracted based on the number of periods used in the calculation.

An alternative technique could be Exponential smoothing, which is a variation of moving average with continuously revising an estimate to include the most recent value (Vonderembse & White, 2013). In other words, unlike standard moving average where the oldest period data is dropped and newest added for the calculation of forecast, in the exponential moving average, data elements are never dropped from the calculations. In fact, even the oldest data contributes to future values, with its impact decreasing exponentially over time. Thus, instead of abruptly dropping any spiked data point, the exponential moving average gradually soothes it out.
References

Vonderembse, M. A., & White, G. P. (2013). Operations management. Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu/

Mergers data in savings and loan industry over 12 years

Years
Mergers

2000
46

2001
46

2002
62

2003
45

2004
64

2005
61

2006
83

2007
123

2008
97

2009
186

2010
225

2011
240

Question1: Calculate a 5-year moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012

To calculate the 5-year moving average, sum the data for most recent 5 years and divide by 5

Estimated Mergers for 2012 = SUM (C10: C14)/5 =
174.2

Question2: Use the moving average technique to determine the forecast for 2005 to 2011. Calculate measurement error using MSE and MAD

Years
Mergers
Forecasted Mergers
Error
Squared Error

2000
46

2001
46

2002
62

2003
45

2004
64

2005
61
52.6
8.4
70.56

2006
83
55.6
27.4
750.76

2007
123
63
60
3600

2008
97
75.2
21.8
475.24

2009
186
85.6
100.4
10080.16

2010
225
110
115
13225

2011
240
142.8
97.2
9447.84

Mean Squared Error (MSE) is the average of all the squared errors

MSE (2005-2011) =
SUM (F28:F34)/7 =
5378.51

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is average of the error values after positive and negative signs are removed from the error values

MAD (2005-2011) =
{SUM(ABS(E28:E34))}/7 =
61.46

Question3: Calculate a 5-year weighted moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012. Use weights of 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.30, with the most recent year weighted being the largest.

Years
Mergers
Weight
Weighted Forecast

2007
123
0.1
12.3

2008
97
0.15
14.55

2009
186
0.2
37.2

2010
225
0.25
56.25

2011
240
0.3
72

Estimated mergers for 2012 using 5-year weighted moving average is the sum of weiighted values over the last 5 years, with most recent period weighted more heavily, being the closest representative of future

Estimated Mergers for 2012, using weighted moving average =
SUM (E44:E48) =
192.3

Question4: Use regression analysis to forecast the number of mergers in 2012

Years
Coded Val. (X)
Mergers (Y)
XY
X^2
Y^2

2000
1
46
46
1
2116

2001
2
46
92
4
2116

2002
3
62
186
9
3844

2003
4
45
180
16
2025

2004
5
64
320
25
4096

2005
6
61
366
36
3721

2006
7
83
581
49
6889

2007
8
123
984
64
15129

2008
9
97
873
81
9409

2009
10
186
1860
100
34596

2010
11
225
2475
121
50625

2011
12
240
2880
144
57600

Sum
78
1278
10843
650
192166

Regression analysis is a method to predict the value of one variable (the dependent variable) based upon the value of other variable (the independent variable)

Y = a + b(X)

Y is the dependent variable

X is the independent variable

n is the number of data points in the sample

r is the coefficient of correlation that measures the strength of the relationship between the variables

b =

17.73

a =

-8.75

r =

0.9

Thus, regression equation is

Y = -8.75 + 17.73 (X)

For 2012 estimate, X = 13

Number of Mergers in 2012 = -8.75 + 17.73*13 =
221.74
222 Mergers (approx.)

—————————

Required Resources
Text
Vonderembse, M. A., & White, G. P. (2013). Operations management [Electronic version]. Retrieved from https://content.ashford.edu/

• Chapter 5: Supply Chain Management: A Strategic Perspective
• Chapter 6: Models and Forecasting
Recommended Resources
Article
Terreri, A. (2007). Who’s minding the yard? Food Logistics, (97), 24-30. Retrieved from the ProQuest database.

Multimedia
July, E. (Producer) & Rodrigo, J. M. (Director). (2003). Business is blooming: The international floral industry (Links to an external site.) [Video file]. Retrieved from the Films On Demand database.
• Watch the following segment:
o Ecuadorian Roses for Valentine’s Day
https://fod.infobase.com/p_ViewVideo.aspx?xtid=34961

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Self-Assessment

Instructions: Complete the following sections by thinking critically about your experiences and habits.

1. Over the past seven days, how many MINUTES did you spend on each of the following activities?
2. Engaging in leisurely reading:
3. Engaging in leisurely Internet activities:
4. Writing in a journal:
5. Engaging in classroom educational activities (e.g., GED, college):
6. Engaging in educational activities outside of the classroom (e.g., homework, report writing, research):
7. Participating in recreational sports activities (e.g., soccer, basketball, softball):
8. Participating in recreational fitness activities (e.g., running, weight lifting):
9. Receiving a professional massage or engaging in whirlpool/water therapy:
10. Attending religious services:
11. Praying outside of religious services:
12. Volunteering time to help a person or organization in need:
13. Having face-to-face contact with family (e.g., spouse, children, parents, siblings):
14. Communicating with family (e.g., phone, e-mail, video, chat):
15. Communicating with friends (include contact with new friends):
16. Communicating with a professional therapist (e.g., routine, post-trauma debriefs):

2. Over the past seven days, how healthy was your diet?

1. Enter the number of caffeinated drinks that you consumed over the past seven days:
2. Enter the number of packs of cigarettes that you consumed over the past seven days:
3. Enter the number of containers of smokeless tobacco that you consumed over the past seven days:
4. Enter the total number of hours of sleep you have had for the past seven days:
5. Over the past seven days, how have you dealt with anxiety?

1. Have you used sleep medication during the past seven days?
2. Have you used prescription medication to control stress or anxiety during the past seven days?

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This week’s lesson explored the concept of affirmative action and its application in hiring. Consider and comment on the following questions:

1. Is affirmative action appropriate as a hiring policy? Is it always a good idea? Never a good idea? Is it only appropriate under certain circumstances? For example, is it only appropriate for certain hiring characteristics, industries, geographical markets, etc.? Explain your reasoning given your understanding and experience (if any) with the concept.

2. Consider the effects of affirmative action with respect to the industry in which you work (or are aspiring to work). Is affirmative action being utilized at all in your industry? If so, how? If not, would it have a beneficial effect on hiring standards if it were? Why or why not?

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