Posted on by Judy

FORECASTING ts such as compn o, South Amei 1. Following are he 10. Eaunotronics manufactures components for use in small electronic products such,a CD players, and radios at plants in Belgium, Germany, and France. The parts a by truck to Hamburg, where they are shipped overseas to customers in Mexic the United States, and the Pacific Rim. The company has to reserve space on ships sometimes years in advance. This requires an accurate forecasting model. Follovinnth number of cubic feet of container space the company has used in each of the past 18 mOnkL Space (1,000s ft.3) 10.6 12.7 9.8 11.3 13.6 14.4 12.2 16.7 18.1 19.2 16.3 14.7 18.2 19.6 21.4 22.8 20.6 18.7 Month 3 10 12 13 14 15 17 18 Develop a forecasting model that you believe would provide the company with relatively a forecasts for the next year and indicate the forecasted shipping space required for the next 3 n The Whistle Stan Caf month in Weams Georoia is well known for its popular homemade ice creal https://d2vlcm61l7u1fs.cloudfront.net/media%2Fa58%2Fa58c4084-3560-4d77-9038-7370b9090e86%2Fimage

https://d2vlcm61l7u1fs.cloudfront.net/media%2Fccf%2Fccf0e295-0d37-4dae-9463-b95fb1cdd8c1%2Fphpk1UU0B.png
In the time series plot, we see an upward trend. However, no particular cyclical pattern of seasonality is evident in the time seris plot.
Therefore, linear trend line forecast should be used to forecast for next year.
This can be done in Excel using formula SLOPE and INTERCEPT
https://d2vlcm61l7u1fs.cloudfront.net/media%2F406%2F406276d8-aa31-43e9-a335-38fa8af02a87%2FphpAWH2rb.png
Formula:
F4 =SLOPE(B2:B19,A2:A19)
F5 =INTERCEPT(B2:B19,A2:A19)
Formula for calculating forecast values: C2 =A2*$F$4+$F$5 copy to C2:C31
 
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  1. FORECASTING ts such as compn o, South Amei 1. Following are he 10. Eaunotronics manufactures components for use in small electronic products such,a CD players, and radios at plants in Belgium, Germany, and France. The parts a by truck to Hamburg, where they are shipped overseas to customers in Mexic the United States, and the Pacific Rim. The company has to reserve space on ships sometimes years in advance. This requires an accurate forecasting model. Follovinnth number of cubic feet of container space the company has used in each of the past 18 mOnkL Space (1,000s ft.3) 10.6 12.7 9.8 11.3 13.6 14.4 12.2 16.7 18.1 19.2 16.3 14.7 18.2 19.6 21.4 22.8 20.6 18.7 Month 3 10 12 13 14 15 17 18 Develop a forecasting model that you believe would provide the company with relatively a forecasts for the next year and indicate the forecasted shipping space required for the next 3 n The Whistle Stan Caf month in Weams Georoia is well known for its popular homemade ice creal https://d2vlcm61l7u1fs.cloudfront.net/media%2Fa58%2Fa58c4084-3560-4d77-9038-7370b9090e86%2Fimage
  2. Brief Exercise 6 5 First Month Operation Kuhlman Company Purchased 190 Units Inventory 11 Q17791878
  3. Using the following information, develop an optimum (minimum total cost) six-month aggregate plan 4 Total 1500 + n Month Forecast (units) 400 300 100 150 250 300 + n Beginning inventory of the first month-n Costs Output Regular time cost- S120 per unit Overtime cost $180 per unit Inventory holding cost $50 per unit per month on average inventory Back order cost = $200 per unit per month Average Inventory = (Beginning Inventory + Ending Inventory) / 2 Regular output 22 units per worker per month Overtime output maximum of 90 units per month for the entire company (all workers combined) Ending inventory for the sixth month 0 Strategy:Maintain workers and use ove ime Example: Sixth Month’s Forecasted Demand 300 + n = 300 45-345 units Total Forecasted Demand = 1500 + n = 1500 + 45 = 1545 units Beginning Inventory n- 45
  4. Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are as follows: Predicted Demand Period Demand F1 F2 1 68 66 66 2 75 68 68 3 70 72 70 4 74 71 72 5 69 72 74 6 72 70 76 7 80 71 78 8 78 74 80 a. Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? Explain. b. Compute the MSE for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? c. In practice, either MAD or MSE would be employed to compute forecast errors. What factors might lead a manager to choose one rather than the other? d. Compute MAPE for each data set. Which forecast appears to be more accurate?