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Suppose That There Are Two 2 Candidates I E Jones And Johns In The Upcoming Pres 1

Suppose that there are two (2) candidates (i.e., Jones and Johns) in the upcoming presidential election.  Sara notes that she has discussed the presidential election candidates with 40 friends, and 27 said that they are voting for candidate Jones. Sara is therefore convinced that candidate Jones will win the election because Jones gets more than 50% of votes.
Answer the following questions in the space provided below:
1. Based on what you now know about statistical inference, is Sara’s conclusion a logical conclusion? Why or why not. What inference test should she use?
2. What z-score did she obtain?
3. What should her conclusion state?
4. Compute the 95% confidence interval?
5. What role does the margin of error play in determining how many individuals should be sampled if we desired a margin of error plus or minus .000001?
6. How would you explain your conclusion to Sara without using any statistical jargon? In other words, is her original sample size sufficient or should she interview more people to obtain an accurate prediction.
 
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  4. response to the outcome of this case The Agent sold Dr. and Mrs. Jones two 20-year term policies in 2000, each having a $5 million death benefit. Dr. and Mrs. Jones are high wealth clients with many insurance and investment products in their portfolio. The monthly premiums for these particular policies were $300/month for Dr. Jones and $250/month for Mrs. Jones. Their policies were set up to pay the premiums through automatic monthly bank account deductions. In 2010, the Joneses wished to replace these policies with two new 20 year term policies in order to extend their coverage period. Because the Agent was no longer affiliated with the original term life insurance company, he could not instruct that carrier to cancel the policies nor cancel the bank drafts. When the Agent met with the Joneses to complete the paperwork for the new term policies, he gave them verbal instructions to contact the original insurance company to cancel the policies. He also instructed them to stop their automatic payments from their bank. The Agent recalls that Dr. Jones was a little concerned that the new policies had a new two year contest ability period associated with them and was considering holding on to his old policy until the two year period was completed. The new policies then issued and were also set up to be paid by automatic monthly drafts from the account. About 5 years later, the Agent received an angry phone call from Dr. Jones. He had noticed that the $550 monthly drafts were still going out of their account for the original term policies. He claims that the Agent told them that the Agent would cancel their policies for them. Dr. Jones is demanding that the Agent refund to them all the payments they made toward the original term policies since 2010 ($33,000). The Agent is adamant that he instructed Dr. and Mrs. Jones to contact their carrier and bank to take care of this since he did not have the authority to do so. There is no documentation in the Agent’s file from 2010 that would evidence that he instructed the Joneses to cancel these old policies on their own.