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the following contains demand for from last 10 months. 1) 27 2)29 3)33 4)41 5)44 6)43 7)44 8)46 9)47 10)41 Actual demand. Calculate the single expontential smoothing forecast for these data using Alpha= .30 and initial forecast (F1) of 27 (I was able to get these: from Month 1 to month 10 in order) Month one 27, 27, 27.6, 29.22, 32.75, 36.13, 38.13, 38.20, 39.94, 41.80, Month ten 43.36 b.) Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend forecast for this data using an Alpha= .30 o=.40 initial trend forecast (T1) of 1.00 and an exponentially smoothed forecast (F1) of 26 So far I have month 1 FiTt =27 month2 FiTt=28 but i cant get the correct answer no matter how I do it to get the next 8 answers. c.) Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the last nine months of forecast. “single exponential smoothing forecast _______” “Expontnetial smoothing with trent forecast________” ********PLease do not use excel************

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F2 = 27
F3 = 27 + 0.3*(29-27) = 27.6
Similarly,
Period Demand (D) Forecast (F1) Error (D-F) Error Abs
1 27
2 29 27.00 2.00 2.00
3 33 27.60 5.40 5.40
4 41 29.22 11.78 11.78
5 44 32.75 11.25 11.25
6 43 36.13 6.87 6.87
7 44 38.19 5.81 5.81
8 46 39.93 6.07 6.07
9 47 41.75 5.25 5.25
10 41 43.33 (2.33) 2.33
55 395 316 52 57
MAD = 57/9 = 6.31
b) Using Trend forecast:
TAF(t) = F(t) + T(t)
F(t+1) = F(t) + alpha*(Actual(t) – F(t))
T(t+1) = T(t) + o*(F(t+1) – F(t) – T(t))
On Solving:
Period Actual F T TAF Error Abs Error
1 27 26.00 1.00 27.00 0.00 0.00
2 29 26.30 0.72 27.02 1.98 1.98
3 33 27.11 0.76 27.87 5.13 5.13
4 41 28.88 1.16 30.04 10.96 10.96
5 44 32.51 2.15 34.66 9.34 9.34
6 43 35.96 2.67 38.63 4.37 4.37
7 44 38.07 2.45 40.52 3.48 3.48
8 46 39.85 2.18 42.03 3.97 3.97
9 47 41.70 2.05 43.74 3.26 3.26
10 41 43.29 1.86 45.15 -4.15 4.15
Error = Actual – Forecast
MAD = (1.98+5.13+…………………..+4.15)/9 = 46.65/9 = 5.18
 
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