On Whether Tweets Predict Elections
A review of the literature indicates “No”
Damien Bourke
School of Information Technology & Mathematical Sciences
University of South Australia
Mawson Lakes, Australia
bouda004@mymail.unisa.edu.au
Abstract—Twitter is an easy to use source of data, and several researchers have used the data contained within tweets to make election predictions. However, Twitter users are not a representative sample of the general population, and thus using tweets as a source for predictions should be undertaken with caution, if used at all. Although certain models produced thus far claim to predict election results, a closer examination finds that they lack methodological rigor, thus casting their results in doubt. Improvements in existing models may lead to better results, and ideas for future, more robust models are discussed. However, Twitter should, at most, complement rather than replace existing forecasting methods.
Keywords—twitter; election results; prediction
IntroductionTwitter (www.twitter.com) is a microblogging platform whereby users publish tweets, which are visible to users’ followers. A tweet has a 140-character limitation; and thus, conveys less information than either a Facebook post or blog entry (since neither face the same 140-character restraint). Although figures have not been updated since August 2013, Twitter users have been estimated to send approximately 500 million tweets per day [1]. There are approximately 313 million [2] falling into three categories.
The first type of users is individuals representing themselves, which is the most common type of account. However, it must be noted that accounts can be shared between users and/or devices. For example, after Donald Trump was nominated as the Republican presidential candidate, his official account, @realDonaldTrump, had posts sent from at least two devices: at least one Android mobile telephone and at least one iPhone. As the attitude and content of the messages from either device varied, it is suspected that the Android messages were sent by Donald Trump himself, while the iPhone messages were sent by his campaign staff (the iPhone-based messages were notable more restrained compared to the more puerile Android-based messages) [3].
The second type of users is individuals who represent organizations. For example, posts made on behalf of corporations or political parties are done so by one or more (unknown and potentially unknowable) individuals representing that corporation or party. For example, it is unclear as to who is the author of tweets from @secularparty; similarly, it is unclear how many individuals post on behalf of this account for the Secular Party of Australia.
The third type of users is automated (botnet) accounts. For example, @RealPressSecBot, which “Checks for new @realDonalTrump tweets every 5 min & transforms them into correct Presidential statement format.” [4]. One estimate of the total number of botnet accounts is in the millions [5], although it the actual number of such accounts is unknown.
Source of Twitter DataWith regards to the time during which election campaigns took place, a review of 127 studies [6] found three main sources of data were obtained from Twitter: from candidates or parties, from the general public, and from mediated events.
Tweets from political parties or candidates fell into two basic categories: broadcasting messages, and replies to messages. Previous research found that most tweets from politicians or political parties adopted a broadcast style; these tweets were intended for one-way dissemination of content from the sender to the receiver. Such tweets include retweets, and represent posting about a topic, rather responding to a topic. Thus, these types of tweets focused on self-promotion [7], impression management [8], information dissemination [9], and party mobilization [10]. By way of example, a self-promotional tweet is shown in Fig. 1, where the tween from an organization user is directed to both @ScottMorrisonMP and the Twitter feeds based on hashtags #qt (Question time in the Australian Federal Parliament) and #auspol (Australian politics).
This Govt has a plan to drive the economy forward and get expenditure under control – @ScottMorrisonMP #qt #auspol
Fig. 1 Tweet from Liberal Party of Australia (@LiberalAus), 13-Sep-2016
However, more recent research indicates that usage of Twitter has moved toward a more conversation and dyadic style of interaction; an increasing percentage of tweets contain replies and mentions [11] (both of which use the “@” feature to direct tweets to the specified users), as shown in Fig. 2, where the tweet from an organization is directing to two individuals, @PaulineHansonOZ and @LyleShelton, while at the same time
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