Technology Lifecycle for a Coaching Application

My coaching application will enter the market with an innovative solution of using augmented reality (AR) to improve runners’ strides for better results on track. Since similar applications that use AR to train runners do not exist, the application is likely going to be successful in the market for about seven months. It will follow the technology life cycle phases of research and development, ascent, maturity, and decline whereby it will be released into the market, steadily attract new users, reach a stagnation, and quickly lose relevance respectively.

Research and Development

In this phase, I will develop my coaching application and publish it on the Android Play Store and iOS App Store; I estimate that it will be the most expensive phase because I will meet both development and marketing costs, while sales will be low (“Technology and Innovation,” n.d.). I will hire two software developers to create the application at a rate of $60 per hour for 12 hours a week for five weeks. Hence, the initial development costs will be $7200. The hourly rates will be relatively high since the application will use augmented reality, which is a new technology that only a few developers have expertise in. Upon successful listing in both Android and Apple application stores, I expect that there will be an insignificant number of purchases. Thus, the research and development phase will be costly while the application will not bring much revenue.

Ascent

Once the application has been listed on the application stores, its installations will begin to steadily increase in the ascent phase. It will get stability in the market by attracting many users (Boost Labs, 2019). I predict that, due to organic discovery, advertisements, and recommendations by existing users, the application will get a minimum of 2000 installations in the first month of this phase. Thereafter, the application will get 10,000 installations in the second month, 30,000 in the third month, 50,000 in the fourth month, and 70,000 in the fifth month. Cumulatively, the application will get many users in the first five months.

Further, the development costs will be recovered and most profits will be generated in the ascent phase. Since the application will be a premium product, it will be purchased at $0.99 and its users will have options to buy add-ons through in-app purchases. Thus, in the first two months, the application will make at least $11,880, hence absorbing the $7200 spent during development. Further, the total revenue from all installations in this phase will be approximately $160,000. Therefore, after subtracting marketing costs estimated to total $50,000 in five months, the application will make about $100,000 in profits. Therefore, in the ascent phase, the application will generate enough revenues to absorb its development costs and make profits.

Maturity

After five months in the market, the application downloads will reach a plateau, indicating that the technology will have reached a maturity phase. Competitors will introduce similar products in the market after studying or reverse-engineering the application. To attract users, they will add more features in their apps and intensify marketing efforts. Hence, the number of new users will increase slowly even though the application will be at the peak of its adoption (Byun, Sung, & Park, 2018). Additionally, recommendations of the application from existing users will reduce since the newer and trending applications from the competition will attract more audience. Thus, due to the entry of competitors, the adoption of the coaching application will stagnate in the maturity phase.

Decline

The application’s relevance in the market will fall in the decline phase leading to fewer downloads and revenues. The utility of the application will diminish as existing users will get more features in applications sold cheaply by competitors. The number of downloads will fall from 72,000 to 2,000 in about three months, and competitors will dominate the market. The decline rate will be quite normal going by market data since most applications lose 80% of their users three months after installation (Chen, 2018). Thus, the app will no longer be financially viable in this phase.

Conclusion

Therefore, the application will introduce a new approach to coaching runners to improve their running tendencies. Its research and development phase will consume funds, though the application will have insignificant returns. Further, the ascent phase will generate revenues to absorb the development costs and make decent profits. Additionally, the maturity phase will have the optimal adoption of the application in the market, but new entrants will introduce competing apps to the market. Eventually, the application’s adoption will dwindle as competitors dominate the market in the decline phase. However, I may renovate the application and focus on marketing to counter competitors and keep existing users.

References

Top of Form

Technology and innovation. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-management/chapter/technology-and-innovation/.

Byun, J., Sung, T. , & Park, H. (2018). Technological innovation strategy: How do technology life cycles change by technological area? Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(1), 98-112.

Boost Labs. (2018). Technology life cycle: When you should engage tech trends. Retrieved from https://www.boostlabs.com/technology-life-cycle-when-you-should-engage-tech-trends/.

Chen, A. (2018). New data shows losing 80% of mobile users is normal, and why the best apps do better. Retrieved from https://andrewchen.co/new-data-shows-why-losing-80-of-your-mobile-users-is-normal-and-that-the-best-apps-do-much-better/.

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