current
January
February
new/trail
new/trail
repeat
customers
100000
30000
5000
22500
Sales- number of boxes
100000
30000
40000
22500
1.
Trial rate= first time triers in period / total target population
= 30000/100000
=0.3 0r 30%
2.
Repeat rate in February=75%
Market penetration rate- Percentage of target customers that make at least one purchase over a period of time.
Penetration in January= New (first time) customers +repeat users =30000+0=30000
Penetration in February =New (first time) customers +repeat users
= New (first time) customers + repeat rate * penetration in t-1(January)
=5000+ 0.75* 30000 = 27500
3. PROJECTION OF TRIAL SALES
The question asks only for trial sales i.e. number of units purchased by first time users in the period
Number of trial users in Feb. =5000
The first time users buy only once in February. Average Frequency of Purchase =1
There has been no mention of the number of boxes purchased by the during a purchase .(information is provided only for repeat users). Hence we assume that new users buy only one box during their purchase. Average Units of Purchase
=1
Projection of trial Sales for period t = number of buyers * average frequency of purchase * Average Units of Purchase
= 5000*1*1=5000 units
4.
Number of repeat buyers in February =repeat rate * penetration in t-1(January)
= 0.75* 30000 = 22500
5.
Number of repeat buyers in February= 22500
Number of purchases during the period = 4 times in the period ( they buy once in a week for 4 weeks )
Average Units of Purchase during each purchase = 2 boxes each time
Repeat volume for February = number of units bought by repeat buyers during the period
= Number of repeat buyers in February* Number of purchases during the period * Average Units of Purchase during each purchase
=22500* 4*2 =1,80,000 units
6. Total volume for February= total units purchased by first time users + total units purchased by repeat users
=5000+ 180000= 1, 93,000 units
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